The Jubilee Line Extension (JLE) cost £3.6bn, a £1.5bn cost over-run, a crisis, now all but forgotten. Miles Ashley, Chair of the steering group for ICE’s latest paper on forecasts vs outturns, discusses the steps we need to take to improve public perception of major projects.
It’s been disappointing for all of us in the industry to see so much recent talk about major infrastructure projects focusing so heavily on monetary costs. The benefits these programmes bring to society is enormous, but sadly, often overlooked in the short-term.
Major projects are consistent; they’re universally complex and once commenced are subject to significant unforeseen change resulting from technical, political, and stakeholder challenges, with inevitable consequences.
The UK is certainly not alone in its over optimism. Nine out of 10 projects around the world with a value of over £1bn exceed budget; there seems to be an ever-present issue of the gulf between initial forecast estimates and final outturn.
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